VLSiM is an individual Monte-Carlo type simulation model that is set up to simulate “ART adherence”, viral load and vertical transmission risk from conception until two years postpartum on a weekly time step.
In addition to a number of individual parameters and outcomes, system level parameters are also modeled, including the possibility to monitor VL and apply interventions of varying effectiveness. The overall objective is to adequately model ART adherence, viral load, and transmission risk in pregnant and postpartum women in low- and middle- income settings (LMIC), in order to inform optimal viral load monitoring schedules for early detection of raised viral load during this period.
We will be adding the technical specification and many more details shortly.
Lesosky et al. A simulation model for longitudinal HIV viral load and mother-to-child-transmission in pregnant and postpartum women (2019) Preprint
Lesosky et al. Bias in the estimation of cumulative viremia in cohort studies of HIV-infected individuals (2019) Publication
Lesosky et al. Evaluation of guidelines for VL monitoring in pregnancy and breastfeeding: a simulation (2019) Poster
Lesosky et al. Optimal timing of viral load monitoring during pregnancy to predict viraemia at delivery in HIV-infected women initiating ART in South Africa: a simulation study (2017) Publication
Myer et al. Pregnant and breastfeeding women: a priority population for HIV viral load monitoring (2017) Publication
This work is partially funded by the NIHCD (R21 HD093463-01)